For many years, the Worlding.org used to be invited friendly “Oscar Parties”– not the Hollywood kind, but the sorts of parties where guests bet on who they think will win awards. Unlike guests who would bet their own hunches, we would just copy the newspaper predictions. And we would always win-so much so that the invitations eventually stopped (at least we think that is the reason).
This year a similar version of Oscar predictions is all set to ruin the suspense, as election pollster has entered the fray. Below are his somewhat self-conscious preliminary words before he announces his picks:
“Twice before, in 2009 and 2011, I sought to predict the Academy Award winners in six major categories based on a mix of statistical factors. My track record? Nine correct picks in 12 tries, for a 75 percent success rate. Not bad, but also not good enough to suggest that there is any magic formula for this.
“So this year, I have sought to simplify the method, making the link to the FiveThirtyEight election forecasts more explicit. This approach won’t be foolproof either, but it should make the philosophy behind the method more apparent. The Oscars, in which the voting franchise is limited to the 6,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, are not exactly a democratic process. But they provide for plenty of parallels to political campaigns.”
Read the rest (if you dare): http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/